Rasmussen (9/30, likely voters, 8/21 in parens):
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47 (43)
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 49 (53)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
In the previous Rasmussen poll of this race, Wicker had jumped up to 17% among African-Americans — today, the Republican is at a mere 2% (that’s probably a bit ridiculously low, just as 17% was probably overstating his support). Musgrove is at 21% among white voters; he may need to bump that up closer to 24 or 25% in order to seal the deal here, depending on the black turnout.
Note the favorable/unfavorable numbers for both candidates: Wicker is seemingly in stronger shape at 59-36, while Musgrove is a bit more banged up at 51-44. Yet the race is as tight as ever in this poll.
With the economy taking center stage, Musgrove should be able to peel away just enough whites to put together a winning coalition.
I also don’t think he will get 96% of the black vote, but 91-92 is not impossible, and if black turnout can reach around 39%, he’s golden.
we will likely get 61 seats. AK, CO, KY, MN, NC, NH, NM, OR, VA, and this.
Just as much as the recent Battleground Pres. polls show the tide turning, I think the real indication is how the Sen. polls in SC, KY, and MS-B have turned…if this momentum continues the Dems. will most certainly have 60 without little jo…remember how things turned in the last month of the ’80 campaign and all the Rep. Senaors came along for the ride?…now the Dems. turn